If Nigeria had accepted the recommendations of the US investment bank J.P. Morgan which recently removed the country from its index, higher inflation would have driven up the prices of food, transportation and other necessities and many Nigerians would have lost their jobs.
In addition, the official exchange rate of the naira to the dollar would have witnessed a sharp increase from the current rate of N197 to N260 and over N300 in the Black Market.
These are some of the findings of a recent Central Bank analysis which is supported by some financial experts.
One of the analysts and Chief Executive Officer of PROSHARE Nigeria, Mr. Femi Awoyemi stated that given the highly import dependent structure of the economy, prices of food items and basic consumables, would have shot up by over fifty percent causing a spike in inflation rate from the current 9.3% to between 13.5% and 15%, were the recommendations adopted.
Furthermore, full adoption of the J.P. Morgan advice would have led to a 50% fall in the value of the Naira, higher school fees for Nigerians studying abroad, and a sharp increase in production costs leading to job losses and more poverty.
The Central Bank Governor, Mr. Emefiele has consistently maintained that the introduction of capital controls is meant to protect the economy from currency manipulators and stimulate growth in critical sectors.
The findings indicate that if the naira had been devalued, foreign currency speculators, would have been the main beneficiaries at the expense of Nigerians.
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